During
the recent Presidential Election, there was one issue on both candidates mind –
a possible American decline but the fact they felt obliged to mentioned but
denied it instantly, suggests that, while they do not want to give other
nations the opportunity to gloat, nor are they sure whether they believe their
claims that America is not in decline . While there are many that argue against
America’s waning power such as Robert Kagan, in recent years and specifically
since 9/11, it is hard to say that America is not declining, in fact “the
United States has been fading as a global power since the 1970s, and the U.S.
response to the terrorist attacks has merely accelerated this decline”
(Wallerstein, 2003, p.13). America’s decline can be argued due to its limits of
hard power and soft power. Joseph Nye coined the term soft power as the ability
to get what you want through attraction rather than through coercion (2004a, p.
x) and while America has many elements of soft power such as its culture
visible through the institution of Hollywood, it also has a large hard power
basis namely its economy and military. In recent years, it has become clear
that these aspects of American hard and soft power are facing decline mostly
due to its foreign policy and the rise in anti-Americanism and terrorism which
have had a significant effect on the decline of different aspects of American
hard and soft power.
Adam
Quinn states in his article “The Art of Declining Politely” that declinists
have been crying ‘wolf’ for a long time, but that wolf did come and it is only
a matter of time till America’s decline becomes too obvious a problem that it
is impossible to deny its occurrence (2011, p. 805).
America’s
‘superpower’ status is defined by its apparent strength in hard power and soft
power but with China a strong competitor in the 21st century, it is difficult to ascertain
whether America will hold this superpower label for much longer, after all,
with a new superpower on the rise, it is inevitable that another nation will
reduce the United States down to the same state as the United Kingdom. Since
the United States’ rise to global hegemony was at the expense of Great Britain
and its receding economy, it is only to be expected that another country will
rise above America to be global superpower. The Pew Research Center’s survey
(2011a) reveals that of 22 nations, 15 feel that China already has or soon will
replace the United States as the world’s primary superpower – a view which is
consistent throughout Western Europe – but “only in Pakistan, Jordan, the
Palestinian territories and Kenya do majorities see an upside to China matching
the U.S. in terms of military power”. This could partly be due to America’s
military power already being in decline.
What has
also affected America’s superpower status in terms of soft power is the United
Kingdom’s rise above America in the country with the best soft power policies.
According to Forbes, “this is the first time the US has been dethroned” with
relation to matters such as “standard of government; diplomatic infrastructure;
cultural output; capacity for education; and appeal to business” (2012).
Although the United States and United Kingdom are close allies, it appears the
British have aspects of soft power which attract other nations more than that
of America. This may have been affected by the UK’s recent two years filled of
festivities such as the Royal Wedding, the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and the
London Olympics but surely these factors are only have a small effect on soft
power ratings in comparison to politics concerning education for example. While
the UK’s hard power status is little to none, it “ranks among the ‘soft power
superpowers’ of the 21st century”,
(YouGov, 2012).
The term
‘hard power’ is using threats via coercion and payments in order to get what
you want. This is usually through the use of the economy and the military. Of
late, both of these factors of American hard power have been under attack by
‘declinists’ who say that American power is in decline. This is mainly due to the
recession and Obama’s rationing of America’s use of power.
Both the
economy and the military are inextricably linked. The economy is undoubtedly
what is seen as the United States most powerful source of hard power especially
because America holds the key to the World Bank but due to the rising debt and
poor fiscal outlook, it appears as though American economic power is decreasing
more rapidly than Americans first thought. Since 9/11, the economy has had its
main focus being on the war against terrorism and although “Osama bin Laden failed in his lifetime to achieve his
goal of ‘bleeding America to bankruptcy’”, America’s economy suffered
massively due to the “avalanche of spending of spending military on military
and counter-terrorism operations [...] estimated at up to $4 trillion in
foreign wars” which have contributed to ‘the deficit crisis’ that has crippled
the country (ABS-CBN, 2011). “Following on from the recession of 2001 to 2003,
the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars started amidst weak economic condition [...]
[causing] the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts [to be] entirely financed by
debt.” Although military expenditure significantly increased, Bush
administration cut taxes which in effect caused income to fall considerably.
“This was the first time in American history that the Government cut taxes as
it went to war”, (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2011, p. 15). As a
consequence United States has now amassed a $16 trillion dollar and counting
and considering this debt is only fractionally due to other governments,
causing experts to emphasise how the “US government spending now depends on
borrowing money from China [...] [therefore] perhaps the moment in
Britain’s decline that American policy makers should be focussing on is [...]
when the US stopped the fighting by threatening to pull the plug on the British
economy” (BBC, 2012) This and the still high unemployment rate have both
contributed to the failing American economy and the problem may lie with Obama (a Democrat) being
President but the Republicans having control over the House of Representatives
and this was proved when first came into office and “offered only the heavy fist of government intervention, rising taxes,
increasing poverty and welfare dependency” (Gardiner, 2012). Because of these
conflicting views between the parties, it is no wonder America’s hard power is in decline
under the democrats and this is only set to continue, especially with Obama
having been re-elected President.
The Iraq
and Afghanistan wars were “dazzling display[s] of America’s hard military power
that removed a dangerous dictator” during Bush’s presidency but since Obama’s
time in office and his slow withdrawal of troops from these countries, the
question is “does withdrawal from Iraw and Afghanistan really mean that
American power is in decline and that of its adversaries on the rise” (Global
Post, 2012)? Since the US military’s failure in Vietnam, the implications have
had a significant effect on its power in modern politics and warfare with
American forces having to surrender their base in Saudi in 2003 due to the
threat of Al-Qaeda while in Afghanistan, the US forces failed in their attempt
to overturn the Taliban rule, resulting in them leaving Afghanistan in the same
in if not worse state than before with it “still run by landlords”. In more
recent years since the Iraq and Afghanistan War, America’s intervention in
Egypt has seen them unable to “secure the pro-revolution tilt that it wanted”
and in Libya, US influence has had no effect on the fighting that still ensues
(Left Futures, 2012). Therefore, it is reasonable to say that with reference to
the past few decades since the Vietnam War, America’s military power has been
significantly declining.
Terrorism
has had a significant effect on American soft power and has led to it almost
disappearing from American foreign policy. Since the 9/11 attacks, terrorism
has emphasised America’s vulnerability which has shown through for the world to
see thus leaving America in a state of paranoia leading them to attack all possible
threats to its superpower status. This is what has led to the rise of
anti-Americanism among many other nations and hence the decline in popularity
of America as a result. This is mainly the result of the war on Iraq which may
have eliminated the rule of Saddam Hussein but it did not solve America’s main
problem – terrorism (Nye, 2004c, p.114). In fact, America’s war on Iraq saw a
rapid decline in its soft power, “in the aftermath of the war, polling by the
Pew Research Center (PRC) showed a dramatic decline in the popularity of the
United States even in countries like Spain and Italy whose governments had
supported the war. And the standing of the US plummeted in Islamic countries
from Morocco through Turkey to Indonesia”, (2004, pp, 114-115). This ever
changing favourability of America has been influenced by the different
Presidents. According to the Pew Research Centre, “under the Bush
Administration, American anti-terrorism efforts expanded [but] many
[people] around the world turned against the U.S. Widespread anti-Americanism
remained a key feature [...] before fading significantly following the election
of Barack Obama” (2011b).
The new
struggle in America is that with Islam and Muslims. In the 19th and 20th centuries, the struggle was with the
integration of African Americans into a society dominated by white Americans
but now, in the 21st century,
a century which has been dominated by and obsessed with the aftermath of the
9/11 attacks, it appears that the hostility towards Muslims has significantly
increased thus causing a rapid decline in American soft power. Since the Bush
Administration, many Americans have stereotyped all Muslims as being
‘terrorists’ as well controversy regarding an American anti-Islam film causing
a less than favourable view of America from Muslim-countries which has caused
many Anti-America protests. This constitutes as ‘Anti-Americanism’ and has
spread all around the world – people’s view of America has declined and this
has more to do with their public diplomacy – hence their soft power – and
although “observers [were] already noting a distinct change in the prominence
and tone of U.S. public diplomacy [...] [and] some [suggested] President Obama
by his very person and style [represented] a game changer for U.S. public diplomacy
in the Islamic world”, (Zaharna, 2009, p. 1), this was only an introductory and
Obama only has partly succeeded in his attempt to improve “America’s dismal
image in the Muslim world”. America’s image in the Muslim world is still rough
especially among Pakistanis and Jordanians where “America’s already poor ratings have declined further since 2008 [when] 19
percent held a positive view of the U.S.
[...] compared with just 12 percent in 2012” (Pew Research Center, 2012]. This view
from Pakistanis has been significantly influenced by the hard power tactics
imposed on their country since Obama’s time in office during which drone
attacks have significantly increased and Therefore American culture no
longer suffices to attract other nations when American hard power actions,
values and institutions override its attraction and with the “world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by
about 35% in the next 20 years” (PRC, 2011c), this is surely not a good
outlook for America’s relations with Muslim countries and is a reminder of
America’s still hostile relations with the Vietnamese following the war on
Vietnam. If America is to keep its superpower status, it needs to limit
its attack on fellow nations and keep its soft power intact because it appears
to be significantly declining.
To
conclude, it can be said that America is in decline and this is mainly due to
9/11. Since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and The Pentagon in
2001, America’s war response to terrorism was imperative on how they were
viewed in the eyes of other nations. Its war on Iraq and Afghanistan along with
its receding economy has caused fellow countries to lose hope and faith in it
as a superpower nation and with its values and policies as well as its poor
public diplomacy with fellow countries being a part of the decisions to declare
war on other nations, have also had a negative effect on its soft power hence
causing an equal decline in both hard and soft power.
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N.B. This is a paper I wrote for my class at university. Please do not copy any of this unless you are prepared to source me as the author. © Thank you
